Decoding China and Other Dragons

Shyam Saran and Pavan Varma.

Two speakers.

Two career diplomats.

Two contrarian views on China, and what the escalated tensions at the border mean for us in coming months, if not weeks.

Both, interestingly, demonstrated in their conversation the very tone they advocated in their response to the Dragon.

Shyam Saran was measured, restrained and didn’t rise to his former colleague’s bait, despite the latter’s emphatic and provocative argument that both Indian action and Indian rhetoric fell short of what is needed to keep China in check.

In a startling admission, Shyam said he does not rule out military engagement but argued that the impression that we’re not taking China seriously is erroneous, and that he believes we’re tackling border aggression with the necessary seriousness even without escalating the tone of our response.

That was precisely what had Pavan Varma up in arms.

He invoked Chanakya and argued for a sharp, strategic response that tackled the psychological issues at play, not just the geo-political ones. Against the backdrop of China’s serial diplomatic provocations against India – issuing of stapled paper visas to Arunachal citizens, stymying India’s UN Security Council bid, and blocking the declaration of Masood Azhar as a global terrorist, among others – he forcefully argued that it was time to up both our rhetoric and our on ground preparedness.

“There’s a middle ground between somewhat embarrassing docility and appropriate aggression,” said Pavan, “and that is something we ought to be able to do.”

It was an insightful conversation, with the audience as invested – and clearly, as sharply divided – as the speakers. But there was a moment of shared optimism – and some nationalistic fervour – when from the audience Algebra member and former Vice Chief of the Indian Air Force, Air Marshal (Retd) Patney took the mike to talk about mood on the ground. “Is our navy worried? No. Is our air force concerned? Far from it. Is our army capable of defending what needs to be defended? A very positive yes. And that, I can tell you, is why China ups the rhetoric but has been reticent about taking action,” he said.

From the highly engaged audience to the contrarian views onstage, it’s an essential conversation for anyone who wants a clearer perspective on the escalating tensions at the border.

Watch the full session above.